No toilet paper…anywhere? Really?
It’s not unusual that people stock up in response to storms and political uncertainty. Indeed, some groups, “preppers”, accumulate years of supplies, anticipating a large-scale breakdown in society. Hoarding is a well-known psychological disorder, but that’s about collecting and retaining huge amounts of worthless items. However, empty supermarket shelves don’t necessarily mean we have all become irrational.
Hoarding appears widespread
It’s not just that toilet paper is missing from store shelves, it’s also been the subject of shopper violence and burglaries.
Many commodities have become scarce. Disinfectants, soap and long-life milk, animal feed and pet food, rice and live chickens (now invaluable for their eggs) are also hard to find. Even guns and ammunition and Illegal drugs are being stockpiled.
Perhaps most tragically, individuals appear to be hoarding Personal Protective Equipment and certain drugs like Hydroxychloroquine for resale, as well as by whole countries, allegedly.
Businesses are hoarding cash (for example, by not paying rent). Banks are doing the same by reducing lending. Countries, too.
Privately Rational, Publicly Harmful
Yet, it’s unclear whether hoarding toilet paper and other necessities is truly irrational. With huge uncertainties about how long shelter-at-home orders may last, it could be wise to accumulate more than two weeks’ of provisions.
While this impulse to stockpile may be privately rational, it’s publicly harmful, even antisocial.
The consequences include shortages and price hikes. This behavior can reduce social cohesion as we battle for the last roll of TP, and it can worsen class tensions. Even before the crisis, 40% of Americans couldn’t come up with $400 in an emergency. Couple that with unprecedented layoffs now occurring: Where are they going to find the money they need to stock-up?
Pandemic Anxiety
Many of us are feeling pandemic anxiety due to the associated unpredictability and risk. Anxiety is a pain that we’ll go to great lengths to quell and there are several factors that add to our pain:
- The possibility of dying is very salient. The stories of under-provisioned and crowded hospital emergency departments are vivid and emotional.
- The science itself is evolving. We lack good understanding of the virus’s contagiousness and lethality. Our aversion to risk and ambiguity makes this hard to tolerate.
- Even if the science were well-developed (as it is, say, in climate change), we still have politicians impugning and ignoring science, contributing to an “infodemic” of misinformation.
- Authorities have failed to prepare for the current crisis and appear to be doing a poor job of managing it. This makes trust scarce, too.
When Anxious, We Take Short-Cuts
Certainly, there is plenty of fear, uncertainty and doubt. These emotions can impair our executive functioning (e.g., self-control) and our ability to think deliberately, strategically and empathetically. As a result, we may rely on certain heuristics (rules of thumb) to make shopping and other decisions.
- Bandwagon Effect: we’re most comfortable following the crowd. Empty shelves are clear evidence of what others are doing and motivate us to buy more.
- Scarcity: everything else equal, we’ll select the thing that is most scarce. Even though my family had just received our regular bulk order of TP in February, I still felt compelled to search for more just a few weeks later.
- Loss aversion: studies have shown that we experience losses much more keenly than equivalent gains. If we should see milk or eggs or flour or TP, we don’t want to lose the opportunity to purchase it.
These effects can lead to a vicious circle: as more people stockpile, this intensifies the bandwagon, scarcity and loss aversion effects, which leads to even more hoarding.
So, Why Toilet Paper?
Perhaps we focus on TP because It comes one of the largest packages we can buy at the supermarket. It’s clear evidence that we’re doing what we can for our families and makes us feel more in control. It’s used to reduce the risk of disease from feces (which can contain the novel coronavirus). Maybe it reflects greater anal-retentiveness brought on by pandemic anxiety. And, it could be comforting since it’s like nesting material. The threat is so overwhelming, merely washing hands seems insufficient. (All this is magnified by a supply chain built for slow, steady growth, not demand spikes like this one.)
We Can Fix This
In pre-pandemic days, we took for granted full shelves and same-day delivery. Our reaction to the pandemic was to exploit this public good for both rational and not-so-rational reasons. And now these commons are tragically in tatters as we adjust to a new reality.
This article originally appeared at Forbes.com on April 17, 2020.How can we speed that adjustment? We need credible government guarantees of food and healthcare security. We need reassurance that the current crisis is truly temporary, backed by competent governments that rely on science and experts. We need reminders to consider the needs of our fellow citizens. And we need both leaders and individuals to behave according to the world they want to see. In the meantime, we can focus on more productive ways to express our autonomy and control, for example over how we spend our money and time. Today, instead of scouring the internet for toilet paper, I’m shopping for a bidet!
This article originally appeared at Forbes.com on April 17, 2020.